TTSE Market Weekly Brief (Week 19)
- The ValueCritic
- 7 days ago
- 4 min read
Updated: 6 days ago
Jamaican banks and cross-listed stocks, such as NCB Financial Group (NCBFG) and JMMB Group (JMMBGL), are performing well, benefiting from stronger regional growth, diversified operations, and consistent investor demand. In contrast, Trinidad-based companies continue to face weak trading activity, stagnant earnings, and growing investor caution due to uncertainty around fiscal policy, subsidy reform, and the broader pace of government-led structural change. As a result, fixed income investors are favoring shorter-term, high quality bonds, while largely avoiding long-term government debt unless there is clearer progress on fiscal consolidation and policy transparency.
TTSE Snap Shot
Index | Close | Weekly Change | Takeaway |
Composite | 1,035.92 | ▼ -0.84% | Weakness in local companies |
All T&T | 1,511.10 | ▼ -1.18% | Investors selling local stocks |
Cross-Listed | 73.83 | ▲ +0.22% | Jamaican stocks showing strength |
SME Index | 91.85 | — | No activity at all |
Total traded value: TTD $14.4M
Volume: 1.83 million shares across 26 stocks
Most trading was concentrated in just 5 names, rest of the market barely moved.
Earnings Summary For the Week.
First Citizens (FCGFH)
Profit: $437.9M | ROE: 13.5% | Dividend: $0.54
Strong, clean balance sheet. Good for investors looking for income.
NCB Financial Group (NCBFG)
Profit: J$22.2B | ROE: 15.1%
Big one-time gain from asset sale, but core business also solid. Great regional footprint and strong in insurance.
Republic Bank (RFHL)
Barely moved this week. Profit stable, but growth is slow.
Safe stock, but lacks excitement or digital innovation.
Massy Holdings (MASSY)
Profit: $350.8M | Revenue: $6.8B
Still a top performer long-term. But after earnings, big investors sold shares, likely locking in gains.
One Caribbean Media (OCM)
Profit: $2.9M | Cash Flow: $8.1M | ▲ +14.94% this week
Cutting costs and making money from solar energy in Barbados. Stock rebounded sharply.
Guardian Media (GML)
Loss: $0.88M | Revenue: $22M
Still trying to turn things around. Cash position improved, but story still developing.
Bond Market Recap
Segment | Value Traded | Notes |
Government Bonds | $102.9K | J314 (4.25% due 2037) traded at 84.00 (YTM: 6.10%) |
Corporate Bonds | $318.8K | NIF 2029 & 2030 stable; preferred by institutions |
Investors are comfortable holding medium-term bonds in the 4–6 year range, where credit risk feels manageable and liquidity is sufficient. However, they are steering clear of longer-dated government bonds due to growing concerns over Trinidad and Tobago’s fiscal spending, subsidy burdens, and lack of meaningful reform. While yields on these longer bonds offer moderate carry, they are not high enough to compensate for the structural risks tied to policy inaction and long-term economic uncertainty.
What Themes Are Driving the Market?
Liquidity is Thin
Liquidity across the Trinidad & Tobago Stock Exchange remains highly concentrated, with the bulk of trading activity occurring in just a few large-cap, well-known names. This continues to reflect a chronic structural issue in the local equity market: limited investor participation, narrow institutional float, and low secondary market depth. Outside of stocks like Massy, NCBFG, or FCGFH, the majority of listings see little to no meaningful volume. Notably, both the SME Market and USD Market boards recorded zero trades for the entire week a recurring trend that highlights the lack of institutional support or retail engagement in these segments. This makes it extremely difficult for investors to enter or exit positions in most listed securities without significant price impact. Until the market broadens and deepens whether through pension reform, regulatory modernization, or new listings liquidity will remain a key bottleneck for capital allocation in T&T.
Regional Diversification Matters
Investors are increasingly favoring Caribbean companies with operations that extend beyond their home country, especially those listed on multiple exchanges. Jamaican financials like NCB Financial Group (NCBFG) and JMMB Group (JMMBGL) have clearly benefited from this trend, drawing consistent demand due to their cross-border exposure, higher returns on equity, and better earnings visibility. These companies offer a built-in hedge against currency volatility and domestic macro risk, as they earn income in multiple jurisdictions and benefit from economies of scale. Additionally, they are often more agile in adopting digital platforms and diversifying revenue streams, particularly through insurance, investment services, and mobile banking. In contrast, companies heavily tied to the Trinidad domestic economy are seen as more vulnerable to policy stagnation, energy price shocks, and fiscal drag. The message from the market is clear: diversification is no longer a bonus it’s a requirement for capital inflows.
Stability + Upside = Winning Formula
In a market where liquidity is tight and volatility is discouraged, investors are placing a premium on companies that offer both steady, reliable cash flows and a credible growth story. Two standout examples this week were First Citizens (FCGFH) and One Caribbean Media (OCM). FCGFH continues to be a defensive core holding, with clean credit books, a high dividend payout, and a strong return on equity. Its digital banking push and ESG aligned initiatives offer a modest but real path to future earnings growth. Meanwhile, OCM surprised to the upside, rallying nearly 15% on strong operating cash flow and early signs of recovery in its media and renewable energy segments. Investors appear willing to reward companies that show fiscal discipline, cost efficiency, and a pathway to margin expansion. In an environment dominated by capital scarcity and risk aversion, this combination of stability plus optionality is what’s getting bid.
Bond Buyers Avoid Long-Term T&T Risk
On the fixed income side, investor behavior is clearly skewed toward mid duration carry trades, with most activity concentrated in 2029–2030 paper such as the NIF Series B and Series C bonds. These instruments offer acceptable yields with lower policy risk and greater liquidity. In contrast, longer-dated sovereign bonds like the GORTT 4.25% 2037 (J314), are being largely ignored by the market. Despite offering a 6.10% yield at a steep discount, institutional investors are staying away due to unresolved concerns about Trinidad’s fiscal path, subsidy regime, and broader structural reforms. The prevailing view is that the credit risk is manageable, but the policy and reinvestment risk are not. Until there is more visibility into medium-term fiscal consolidation and expenditure discipline, demand for long-term TTD debt will remain tepid. The current environment favors carry, not conviction.
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