TTSE Weekly Market Summary: A Mixed Week in Equity and Debt Amid Firming Earnings (Week 20)

This week’s trading on the Trinidad & Tobago Stock Exchange (TTSE) saw broad equity index gains and relatively subdued bond market activity. The Composite Index rose 0.77%, driven by a 1.05% climb in the All T&T Index, while the Cross-Listed Index slipped slightly by 0.08%.

Investor appetite was selectively risk-on: Scotiabank Trinidad & Tobago (SBTT) surged 7.46% to close at $53.73, Trinidad & Tobago NGL (NGL) gained 5.72% on strong earnings, and Unilever Caribbean (UCL) rose 4.77%. Conversely, One Caribbean Media (OCM) fell 10.0%, and Calypso Macro Index Fund (CALYP) dropped 5.77%, highlighting a divergence in sentiment between operating companies and passively managed funds.

In bonds, the GORTT 4.25% 2037 (J314) was the only government security traded, closing at $84 with a yield of 6.10%. In corporate credit, NIF 6.60% 2038 (NIF090838) traded $51,000 face value, closing firm at $102 and yielding 6.37%.

Company Earnings Highlights

Top Performers

1. West Indian Tobacco (WCO)

• Revenue: TT$83.1M (+11.3% YoY)

• Profit before tax: TT$19.9M (+1.4% YoY)

• Growth driven by premium segment (e.g., Launchd Vape) and export markets.

• Dividend deferred due to cautious macro outlook.
  

2. Agostini’s Ltd (AGL)

• Revenue: TT$2.78B (+5.0%) | Profit: TT$169M

• Strong performance in Consumer and Pharmaceutical segments, with accretive regional acquisitions.

• Declared $0.36/share interim dividend, payable in June.
  

3. ANSA McAL (AMCL)

• Profit attributable to equity holders: TT$54.2M

• Earnings contraction YoY (from TT$107M), but margin discipline sustained.

• Segment strength in Construction and Automotive offset weaker Financial Services.
  

4. Trinidad and Tobago NGL (NGL)

• Net profit: TT$13.4M (+14.0% YoY)

• Earnings supported by 59% higher share of profit from Phoenix Park Gas Processors, despite falling margins.
  

5. Point Lisas Industrial Port Development Corporation (PLD)

• Revenue: TT$105.4M (+18.0% YoY)

• Profit: TT$43.9M | EPS: $1.11

• Boosted by fair value gains on investment properties and steady estate rental income.

• Cash reserves rose to TT$208M.
  

6. National Investment Fund (NIF)

• Reported net loss: TT$97.1M (vs TT$263K loss YoY)

• Negative swing due to unrealised fair value losses on Republic Holdings shares amid rate-sensitive pressure.

• Still covered dividend payments via strong interest and dividend income streams.
  

7. Calypso Macro Index Fund (CALYP)

• NAV fell to $23.51 | YTD loss: TT$2.3M

• Performance weighed by declines in key equity holdings; outflows persisted.
  

8. Eppley Caribbean Property Fund Development Fund (CPFD)

• Net loss: BB$20.5K

• NAV per share held at BB$0.34, but trading at a deep 59% discount on the Barbados Stock Exchange.

• Liquidity remains high (cash: BB$3.9M), but portfolio turnover remains muted.
  

Macro Themes Emerging from Earnings

1. Cost Rationalization and Margin Defense Dominate

Companies like AMCL, WCO, and NGL focused heavily on cost controls to preserve margin as volumes remain sensitive. Several reports note cuts to selling and administrative expenses and heightened scrutiny on working capital.

2. Property & Real Asset Income Provide a Buffer

PLD and NIF benefited from rental income and revaluation gains, suggesting investors may rotate into real-asset-linked stocks for inflation resilience and yield, especially in a high interest rate environment.

3. Energy & Gas Infrastructure Earnings Strengthen

NGL and PLD show that natural gas liquids and port/industrial estate infrastructure continue to perform. NGL reported improved earnings due to higher throughput and plant efficiency, while PLD posted a 33% operating margin, up from 30%.

4. Liquidity Preference Remains High

Cash levels surged across multiple entities:

• PLD: TT$208M

• AGL: TT$12.8M

• CPFD: BB$3.9M This suggests limited reinvestment and cautious capital allocation, a sign of defensive positioning by corporates.
  

5. Mixed Outlook for Investment Funds

The Calypso Fund and NIF reported portfolio drawdowns due to rate-sensitive equity exposures. While the underlying income streams remain intact, mark-to-market volatility is creating NAV erosion and investor outflows.

Outlook: Capital Rotation Amid Diverging Fundamentals

Heading into Q2, we anticipate:

• Rotation into high-yield, asset-backed firms like PLD, RFHL, and NGL.
  

• Further compression in cross-listed valuations as Jamaican names underperform on weak FX earnings and capital repatriation concerns.
  

• Rising demand for inflation-hedged dividend stocks, especially as local inflation creeps and US Fed remains on hold.