Which T&T Companies Stand to Gain from U.S. Tariffs on China?

As global trade patterns change again, some T&T companies are in a strong position to benefit from new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. Companies with broad operations, strong regional exports, or local manufacturing are better prepared to take advantage of these changes. While many businesses in the region still face rising costs, a few are showing real advantages that could boost their earnings in the coming years.

This article looks at which Caribbean companies, based on their financial reports, are most likely to gain from tensions between the U.S. and China. It also explains what investors should look for when deciding which companies are well positioned for this shift in global trade.

ANSA McAL Limited: Strongest Regional Candidate

AMCL is the Caribbean's most strategically aligned player for this environment. With a diversified portfolio spanning construction, packaging, brewing, distribution, and chemicals, it has made a decisive push into U.S. markets.

In 2024, the Group acquired U.S. based BLEACHTECH LLC for US$327 million, establishing a foothold in the North American chemical supply chain. This move positions ANSA McAL to directly absorb reshoring flows, serve U.S. industrial clients, and displace China linked suppliers.

Metric	Value (2024)
Revenue	TT$7.4B
Profit Before Tax (PBT)	TT$906M (▲8%)
Earnings Per Share (EPS)	TT$3.32 (▲11%)
Investment in Capex and M&A	TT$2.8B+
Dividend Policy	Suspended to reinvest
Key Exposure	U.S. chemicals, T&T manufacturing, Guyana construction

The company also ramped up smart bottling capacity and expanded CARIB Beer’s footprint across India, the UK, and North America, providing further insulation from Asian import competition.

Verdict: Most likely to benefit directly from U.S.-China tariff escalation via import substitution, U.S. industrial exposure, and regional logistics reach.

Massy Holdings Limited: Beneficiary via Import Substitution

MASSY continues to show resilient earnings across its core verticals, distribution, motors and machines, and gas Products, many of which are already shifting away from China dominated supply chains.

In its 2024 report, Massy emphasized that it had increased sourcing from Latin America and India, including through Mahindra (India) for vehicles and Caterpillar (U.S.) for industrial equipment. Its food distribution arm already leans on regional and U.S. supply lines, insulating it from cost shocks tied to China.

Metric	Value (2024)
Revenue	TT$6.8B
Net Profit	TT$350.8M
ROE	11.5%
Cash Flow from Operations	Strong, capex disciplined
Key Exposure	Distribution, motors, logistics across Caribbean and Latin America

With operations in Colombia, Guyana, and Barbados, Massy is well-placed to benefit from nearshoring and regional substitution effects as Chinese goods become more expensive or harder to access.

Verdict: Likely to benefit indirectly through market share gains in retail, distribution, and equipment due to rising China costs.

National Flour Mills (NFM): Tactical Trade Winner

NFM has made deliberate moves to secure supply chain resilience, including locking in six months of grain inventory and pursuing new regional export markets.

The company manufactures and exports flour, dry mix, and animal feed to diaspora-heavy markets in North America and the Caribbean. If tariffs reduce the competitiveness of Chinese food products, NFM may gain volume in these niches.

Metric	Value (2024)
Revenue	TT$473.6M
Operating Profit	TT$29.6M
Net Profit	TT$21.7M
Export Strategy	Diaspora + regional expansion
Inventory Strategy	6-month buffer to mitigate shocks

The company has also reduced energy use and operating costs, enhancing its ability to defend margins should import prices rise.

Verdict: Short-term beneficiary from substitution and export tailwinds, especially if U.S. consumers seek alternatives to Asian imports.

Trinidad Cement Limited (TCL): Infrastructure Proxy with Policy Protection

TCL operates in a segment largely protected from Chinese competition due to weight, shipping costs, and import regulation. If U.S.-China tensions restrict global infrastructure sourcing, TCL may benefit from increased reliance on regional suppliers for cement and construction inputs.

Metric	Value (2024)
Revenue	TT$2.21B
Net Income	TT$149.9M
Export Reach	Jamaica, Guyana, Suriname
Foreign Exchange Earnings	TT$147.8M
Market Share	Near-monopoly in T&T cement

The Group is also integrating sustainable fuels and cleaner production, aligning with ESG procurement frameworks that are becoming more important under U.S. and European infrastructure rules.

Verdict: Moderate beneficiary from trade shift; pricing power and margin expansion likely if Chinese building inputs lose share regionally.

Unilever Caribbean Limited (UCL): Limited Upside

UCL exposure is mostly limited to local and regional FMCG segments. While the company has grown revenue and profit by 12% and 58% respectively, it does not export meaningfully to the U.S. or depend on U.S.-China trade routes.

Metric	Value (2024)
Revenue	TT$229M
Net Profit	TT$28.8M
Export Exposure	Regional only
U.S. Exposure	None

UCL benefits more from Unilever global innovation and cost efficiencies than from geopolitical trade shocks.

Verdict: Unlikely to gain from tariffs on China. Performance driven more by internal brand strength than trade realignment.

Summary Table

Company	Exposure to China Tariff Shifts	Tariff Benefit Potential	Strategic Drivers
AMCL	Direct (chemicals, beverages)	High	U.S. expansion, reshoring, packaging
MASSY	Indirect (autos, logistics)	Moderate to High	Supply diversification, import substitution
NFM	Indirect (food exports)	Moderate	Diaspora targeting, input hedging
TCL	Indirect (infra/local supply)	Moderate	Infrastructure investment, protection
UCL	Minimal	Low	Limited exposure to U.S.-China dynamics

While the impact of U.S.-China tariffs will vary by sector, Caribbean companies with U.S. exposure, import substitution potential, and cost-efficient regional operations stand to benefit most. ANSA McAL leads this group, followed by Massy and National Flour Mills. Investors should watch for margin expansion, capital investment direction, and export volume trends as these tailwinds materialize.